Did the Whitecaps progress in 2024? Breaking it down by the numbers

The 50th anniversary season for Vancouver Whitecaps seemed to have promised so much, especially in its early stages. But come the end of it, it sort of felt like the ‘Caps ended up around the same place as they did in 2023. Should fans be able to call this year progress? Well that’s where we come in. Despite the website’s (and podcast’s) apt name, AFTN will be looking at the numbers – as well as the facts – from this 2024 Whitecaps season and compare it to last season’s numbers to determine if and how much progress the ‘Caps were able to achieve this year.

Basic Overall Stats & Facts

Let’s start with the basics.

Firstly, the ‘Caps played 48 competitive games in 2024 (not including the Wrexham friendly sandwiched right in the middle of the season for 49). They finished with an overall record of 21 wins, 9 draws, and 18 defeats. Two of those wins were in penalty shootouts, one in Leagues Cup vs LAFC and one in the Canadian Championship Final against Toronto. If you prefer to consider them ties, then the actual record is 19W-11D-18L. They scored 62 goals overall, conceding 60, leaving them with a competitive goal difference of +2. They won their third-straight Voyageurs Cup after beating Toronto, lost in the first round of Concacaf Champions Cup against Tigres, finished 8th on 47 points in MLS and were eliminated in the playoffs after forcing three games against LAFC and winning the Wildcard match against Portland Timbers.

Let’s compare that to 2023, where they played two less competitive games with 46.

In that season, the ‘Caps’ overall record was 17 wins, 12 draws, and 17 losses. This time, two of their losses came in penalty shootouts, both in Leagues Cup against Mexican opponents, so if you consider them ties, the record changes to 17W-14D-15L. They also scored considerably more goals in 2023, putting 76 into the back of the net whilst conceding a bit more with 63, leaving them with a competitive goal difference of +13. They won their second-straight Voyageurs Cup, crashed out of Concacaf Champions League in the second round to LAFC, finished 6th on 48 points in MLS, and were eliminated in just two games in the first round of the playoffs to, again, LAFC.

Looking at just these facts and stats between the seasons, it does initially feel like 2024 was more of a lateral move rather than an upwards move in terms of progress. The ‘Caps won two more games overall, but traded three draws for three more losses. They finished one place lower in the Western Conference with one less point, and crashed out at the same stage of the playoffs against the same opponent in LAFC. They did, however, win two playoff games in 2024, with one coming at home against LAFC and the one coming over Portland in the Wildcard round. The team scored far less goals overall in 2024, with 2023 bringing many more routs in both MLS, Champions Cup, and the Canadian Championship, but they did end up conceding three less goals. Yet, it’s hard to fully determine the ‘Caps progress just based on this. Let’s dig deeper.

Notable Results

Building on that last point about routs, let’s delve into the notable results in both seasons.

In terms of games where they won scoring three or more goals, they had nine games where they managed that in 2024. Notable wins are of course the two wins in the playoffs (5-0 against Portland, 3-0 against LAFC), a 4-0 win over Toronto FC, a 4-3 thriller versus St. Louis CITY, and a 3-1 win over Tijuana in Leagues Cup. In games where they lost conceding three or more goals, they fell to that seven times. Notable losses were the 3-0 loss to Tigres in the Champions Cup at the start of the season, the 3-0 loss to Seattle at home that forfeited the Cascadia Cup in October, and the 4-2 and 4-3 losses to LA Galaxy and Houston Dynamo, respectively.

Meanwhile, in 2023, the Whitecaps had 10 games in which they won by scoring 3+ goals, and lost eight games where they conceded 3+ goals. That’s one more big win and one more big loss than in 2024. What inflated their overall goal difference in 2023 were the games against Real Espana and Montreal where they won 5-0, that 6-2 trampling of Houston, the 4-1 defeat of York United in the Canadian Championship and more.

Now, big wins and big losses don’t really have that much of an impact on the ultimate performance of the team aside from perhaps goal difference, but nevertheless, to supporters that care more about going/watching memorable games (like the casual fans), they matter more than one might think. So overall, 2024 was about on par with 2023 but with less big margins of victory.

The Hidden Numbers

Lastly, let’s dive into the hidden numbers of the Whitecaps’ season in 2023 and 2024. This one is more for the stats nerds and die-hards (and therefore the longest). Due to the limited availability of stats for all competitions, we’ll focus just on MLS.

Now with the numbers on the table, let’s see what insights we can take away from them. Curiously, despite the improvement in their actual numbers, the ‘Caps did equal or worse in their expected numbers this season in MLS. They essentially had the same number of xG, but worse xGA by 4.4 goals, meaning their xGD was -4.5 between the seasons. This points to a defence in 2024 that should have conceded way more goals than they should have in 2023, but actually conceded less. It also shows a trend that the Whitecaps are tending to overachieve in their goals but underachieve in their goals against. That may be due to the prominent form of the likes of Ryan Gauld and Brian White, as well as the difficulties in defending goals in Vanni’s preferred three-back system (along with some other factors we’ll review later).

But just looking at the xG stats doesn’t paint a good enough picture. To fill it out some more, let’s delve into some other fun stats. Let’s start with some in-possession ones:

Looking at these stats, we can see an almost unanimous improvement across the board in the stats. While some of the margins might seem small, like in shot conversion and accurate passes, they are big improvements in the grand scheme of things. Especially when you consider that in both crossing and long balls, the Whitecaps were 1st and 4th in MLS, respectively. They did end up missing as many more big chances as they created between 2023 and 2024, but at least their conversion rate increased.

The higher shots conversion with less shots on target per 90 also points to a bit more clinical scoring this year compared to last, even if they didn’t score that much more between the season (1.58 Goals per Game in 2023 to 1.60 GPG in 2024). The slight decrease in average possession but increase in the other attacking metrics reflects the way that the ‘Caps have developed even more into a fast, transitional team in the attack this year, rather than trying to score by keeping possession.

Now let’s look at some out of possession stats:

Now looking at these defensive stats, it tells a bit of an interesting story. The decrease in successful tackles per 90 would be a fine stat for the Whitecaps, since it could point to a better understanding of the zonal system that prefers to wait until the ball comes into areas that are more dangerous/have a better chance to win it rather than going out to win as it usually is in a man-marking system. However, the decrease in interceptions per 90 contradicts that insight, since you would usually trade tackles for more interceptions, especially inside or just outside your own box. The increase in clearances at least shows that the Whitecaps have gotten better at clearing the danger, although it could be that they just had less danger to clear than in 2023.

Similarly, the decrease in the saves per 90 could point to either less shots faced that needed saving or a worse save percentage – the answer of which requires stats like save % and goals prevented that I am not currently privy to (damn you Wyscout and your increased costs!). The disciplinary record also shows that the Whitecaps were a bit better in not fouling or giving away yellows, even if they did end up with two extra red cards (that Utvik handball still hurts to see).

However, the most interesting stat for me is obviously the increase in penalties conceded, as the five extra penalties directly impacted their xGA. One penalty equals roughly 0.79 xG, meaning that those five extra penalties gave the ‘Caps an extra 3.95 xGA in 2024. Take those extra penalties away, and their actual xG is closer to 2023’s numbers, 46.35 xGA to 45.9 xGA.

Conclusions – Progress or Not?

With the cards all on the table (or at least, a good chunk of them), it’s time for the verdict. Did the Whitecaps really progress in 2024?

The answer is – as one might expect – not exactly clear. On one hand, the deeper statistics point to a clear sign of progress in many metrics, particularly in possession/attacking ones, compared to 2023. The team scored more, conceded less, and overachieved in many regards. Nevertheless, in terms of what many fans consider to be the stats that matter (i.e. wins/losses, points, and table positions), it wasn’t as clear. The Whitecaps finished with one less point, two positions lower with three more losses, and only two more wins. They won the Voyageurs Cup again which is obviously a huge plus – but they did that last year as well. They won two playoff games this season, but did not improve in terms of how far they went in them. Even continental competition progress was about the same as in 2023.

So all in all, did the Whitecaps actually progress? I guess it depends on who you ask. For many casual and moderate fans, they may be inclined to say no, given the surface stats that stand out the most. While for more hardcore fans, they may say yes given not only the betterment of the deeper stats but also the better style of play that the Whitecaps put on display when they were at their best throughout the year. As usual perspective plays a big factor in whether you can call a season a success or even an improvement, but this is my personal verdict:

Did the Whitecaps progress in 2024? Yes, but marginally.

I think if you take everything into consideration, it’s not a season where you can wholeheartedly say that they were miles better than in 2023, but you cannot deny they did improve, even if it was just by a little bit. This season showed that the signs are there for this team to make the next big step – it just wasn’t the season where they necessarily took it. Now its on Vanni Sartini and co. to ensure that 2025 does become that season – or risk another year of stagnation/minor improvements.

Which, as someone who has come to know Vancouver sport more intimately, is something the people have little patience for anymore.