How to get useless stats from preseason / How to make a statistician cry

How to get useless stats from preseason / How to make a statistician cry

The term “They have had a good preseason” is sometimes laughed at, because preseason is seen as a meaningless set of results, only good for getting fitness levels to an acceptable levels. However, let us examine the facts, and see what if this preseason can tell us anything about what to expect. The ‘Caps usually pick a mixture of similar level opposition mixed with some teams they really should be beating. This year is no different.

Before we start, I don’t expect to find any strong correlations, BUT there are trends we see the Whitecaps follow.

Most seasons the Whitecaps start strong, have a bad stretch at the end of summer, and are extra inconsistent to close out the regular season. So take my hand, and follow me on this wildly speculative analysis.

When I wrote that last chapter, I had not crunched the data. Now that I have, I feel vindicated. Preseason really doesn’t mean anything. Now before the stat heads out there bash me, this is just for fun. We’re not taking ourselves too seriously here! So here’s what I got:

Preseason only stats

* The ‘Caps have never lost the 5th, 7th, or 8th game of a preseason
* The ‘Caps have always scored more goals than conceded
* Since 2012, the ‘Caps have only had tied scores of 1-1
* The ‘Caps have always scored 10 or more goals in a preseason
* The longest unbeaten streak in Whitecaps preseason history was from the 7th game of 2011 to the 6th game of 2013
* The biggest Whitecaps win was 6-0, and the biggest defeat is 0-2
* The Caps have only conceded more than 2 goals once in preseason

Post season implications

So what might all of this mean to the Whitecaps playoff hopes? Well…

* When the ‘Caps goals scored to conceded ratio is more than 2, they have made the playoffs 75% of the time
* When the ‘Caps draw two games, they make the playoffs 75% of the time
* When the ‘Caps have 8 preseason games, they have never made the playoffs
* Every time the Whitecaps have had 7 preseason games, they have made the playoffs
* Exactly 4 wins in preseason means playoffs
* The ‘Caps have made the playoffs every time they lose the 3rd game, and have missed out every time they lose the 4th game

This might be a good time to note that this year the ‘Caps currently have just four preseason matches scheduled. Uncharted territory! Let’s see how this all plays out. Or maybe they should just add three more matches.

Authored by: Joe Deasy

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