The State of the ‘Caps heading into the playoffs

The State of the ‘Caps heading into the playoffs

Posted on October 10, 2024 by in MLS, VANCOUVER WHITECAPS with 0 Comments

After another disappointing defeat at home at the hands of Minnesota United last Saturday, Vancouver Whitecaps have fallen from potential Top 4 players to trying to scrape past the play-in match. Thankfully, the ‘Caps had already ensured their place in the playoffs prior to these back-to-back defeats, but it remains to be seen where they will finish. Let’s explore what can happen in the last couple of games and what the playoffs might look like for the Whitecaps.

Where They Are Now

The Whitecaps are currently in 8th place in the Western Conference, on 47 points after having played 32 games. Had the season ended after the final whistle against Minnesota, the Whitecaps would be hosting fellow Cascadian rivals Portland Timbers. Given how well the ‘Caps played against Portland just a couple weeks ago, that might be a favorable tie, but the goal was always to finish in the Top 7, at worst.

Luckily, the Whitecaps have a game in hand advantage of everyone except for LAFC, after their game earlier in August was postponed thanks to everyone’s favourite competition: Leagues Cup. That means that, should they win their game in hand against the black and gold, the ‘Caps may find themselves up to 6th position, regardless of other results.

But for now, they are 8th. Their current placement is especially frustrating since they were hovering around that 5th and 6th position for some weeks both prior to and after Leagues Cup. After the league restarted, wins over Austin and San Jose set them up nicely to make a push for the Top 4, but they struggled to take advantage of them following a number of poor results. Brutal losses to LA Galaxy away and Seattle Sounders at home were obviously let-downs, but it was the games against FC Dallas and Portland Timbers at home that were particularly frustrating because the Whitecaps could – and should – have gotten all three points after outplaying their opponents.

Had they taken maximum points from those two games, they would be 5th on 53 points and still well in the fight for that home playoff advantage, with Salt Lake and Seattle only 3 points above that in 4th and 3rd respectively. Nevertheless, the Whitecaps have two more matches to set the record straight and get themselves into the best positions possible.

LAFC – The Game in Hand

LAFC have become an unlikely rival for the ‘Caps in recent years, especially throughout Vanni Sartini’s tenure. Games in the playoffs, in crucial league matches, Leagues Cup fixtures, and even in the Concacaf Champions Cup (then League) have seen both of these teams square off. In fact, LAFC and the Whitecaps have faced each other eight times (!!!) in just the last two years, with Sunday’s match the ninth occasion. That’s three more times than against nearby Cascadian rivals Portland and Seattle (six each).

Unfortunately, the record hasn’t been all that great in the ‘Caps’ favour. Vancouver has a 1-2-5 record in those 8 matches, with one of the draws technically a win on penalties in Leagues Cup this year and their sole regular time victory was that famous 3-2 win that gave them their first away win of the season last year. That puts the ‘Caps in a tough position ahead of Sunday.

Compounded is the fact that the Whitecaps will be missing six crucial players for this match due to international duty. The match being played in this international window is yet another lovely gift courtesy of Leagues Cup, and robs the ‘Caps of Ali Ahmed & Sam Adekugbe (Canada), Ryan Gauld (Scotland), Andres Cubas (Paraguay), Fafa Picault (Haiti), and Pedro Vite (Ecuador); all players that usually start.

A small silver lining about the timing of this match is that it also affects LAFC, as they will miss a few big players, the biggest of which is ‘Cap Killer Denis Bouanga, who is away with Gabon. Cristian Olivera and Maxime Chanot will also miss out with duties for Uruguay and Luxembourg, respectively. That means that, arguably, LAFC’s most dangerous man – who loves to score against Vancouver with 7 goals in 8 games – will not be a threat. Now, that does not mean they don’t have other options, as Olivier Giroud, Mateusz Bogusz, David Martinez, and ex-Cap Kei Kamara are all dangers in and of themselves.

The Whitecaps will need to rely on their substitutes and fringe players to not only step up, but exceed all expectations by putting one over an in-form LAFC side, who have won their last four games and are sitting pretty in 2nd place. Players like Sebastian Berhalter, Levonte Johnson, and Damir Kreilach. Hopefully, this does give more opportunities for late-signings/returns to get more game time in Deiber Caicedo, Edier Ocampo, and Stuart Armstrong. Either way, it will not be an easy task, but they have no choice but to rise to the challenge.

Real Salt Lake – Decision Day

As mentioned, that game in LAFC will decide what situation the ‘Caps find themselves in going into Decision Day away at Real Salt Lake. A win will propel them into 6th place, a point behind Houston Dynamo in 5th. A draw or loss will keep them in 8th place and fighting to skip past the play-in match. Depending on how that game ends, the look of this final match may vary greatly.

Real Salt Lake, who are unbeaten in their last five games, are also fighting for something on Decision Day, as they look to steal a higher seed in the West. Should the Whitecaps win vs LAFC, RSL will be within two points off of the Californian club going into the final day. So too will be Seattle Sounders, who are level on points with Salt Lake, so RSL will certainly want to bring their A-game to this match if they want a perceived easier draw going into the playoffs.

That means either way, it won’t be easy for the ‘Caps heading into Utah. If they manage to beat LAFC, they will be in 6th place but only a point ahead of Minnesota in then 8th and level on points with Colorado Rapids in 7th. That suggests that, even with the LAFC win, they still cannot afford to slip up against RSL due to the fact that both Minnesota and Colorado face already-eliminated teams in St. Louis and Minnesota, respectively. One can imagine those teams will already have one eye on the postseason since they have nothing else to play for, potentially giving the Rapids and Minnesota an easier game than the ‘Caps will have.

Therefore, to a degree, the LAFC really only affects this match by a little. Of course, the win helps the ‘Caps greatly since a point may be all they need to avoid finishing 8th or 9th should one of Colorado or Minnesota draw whilst the other loses. Should they go into the RSL match with a loss from LAFC, then only a win is good enough to get the Whitecaps out of those play-in spots and into the play-offs proper. The good news is that, should injuries not be a concern, the ‘Caps will have a full strength side at their disposal on Decision Day. Adekugbe, Ahmed, Cubas, Gauld, Picault, and Vite will all be back and, hopefully, fitter than they left after a few of them had some niggling injuries that had been hampering them.

Their away record this season should also bring some more hope to Whitecaps fans, as they are 7-4-5 in 2024, which is one win and one loss better than their home form of 6-4-6 and also way better than last year’s away record of 4-6-7. Their record with RSL, however, does breed more concern as they are winless in their last four meetings, and haven’t won in Utah since September 2020. The ‘Caps will need to play at their best to break that streak and ensure their place in the Top 7 of the playoffs. If not, they may need to resign themselves to having to play the lottery that is the play-in game.

All to Play For, But No Room for Mistakes

All things considered, the Whitecaps can still finish the season strong. Two wins and they can finish on 53 points, surpassing the 50-points mark for only the third time in their MLS history. It would also be Vanni Sartini’s highest point tally in his history with the club. Four points will grant them that same fate as well as Top 7, while anything less than three points will likely condemn them to, what can only be described as a disappointing end.

Simply put, that means the Whitecaps have no room for excuses or mistakes. They have to deliver in these last two matches if they want to save their ambitions for the regular season and prove that they are still on a good upward path under Sartini. Anything less will make it even harder for the Whitecaps, who have struggled under the weight of a packed schedule, persistent injuries and international call-ups in the last six weeks. Adding that extra game will only add to their troubles.

Then again, the Whitecaps may finish 9th and still go on to a record playoff run, potentially even featuring in the MLS Conference Final for the first time. But it’s still a long way from here to there, so let’s hope they can make it as easy as they can for themselves to create some more history this year.

      
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Authored by: Felipe Vallejo

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