Another Game of Fine…Margins: LAFC vs Whitecaps analysis

Still on the high off of that 5-0 thumping against Portland Timbers in the midweek Wildcard match, Vancouver Whitecaps had high hopes going into Game 1 of the Best-of-3 round against LAFC, despite it being in California. In a match that saw both sides hit similar numbers in terms of shots, chances, and even woodwork hits, the game was edged 2-1 by LAFC, leaving the Whitecaps rueing missed chances and praying for some more luck ahead of Game 2.

A Game of Centimeters

LAFC are a team that the Whitecaps – and its fans – have been able to be quite familiar with in the past couple of seasons. Sunday’s match marked the tenth time the two sides have faced each other since the start of the 2023 MLS season. And if there is any big lesson to be learned from all of those meetings, it is that you cannot miss your shot against LAFC, or else they’ll take it for you.

Unfortunately for the ‘Caps, Sunday’s game was another example of that. Despite the match being in California and the Whitecaps having the chips against them, they created some wonderful chances to score, especially in the first half. Brian White had a golden opportunity after Stuart Armstrong slipped him in, but struck the inside of the post and out after beating Hugo Lloris. Ryan Gauld then smashed the crossbar right before the half-time whistle from a 25-yard out free-kick.

But these are the opportunities that, in other games, might not be as impactful when you can create some more chances, but against a team like LAFC who have quality galore, it matters greatly. For LAFC, arguably the most lethal counter-attacking team in the league, will always have chances to score. And they will finish them more often than not. Cristian Olivera’s second goal highlights that, as Whitecaps did almost everything correctly in defending that chance, but just left a little too much room open for Olivera to fire at. Not caring about the close angle at all, the Uruguayan winger nearly blew the top off of the net with a near post rocket, putting LAFC 2-0 up at home and all but condemning the ‘Caps to a near certain fate.

The Whitecaps did make it a little nervy when the ever-reliable Ryan Gauld swept in a goal in added time, but they will be wishing that they had scored that first goal earlier, specifically when it was still a level game. But in the end, it’s those minute details that have separated the two sides in the past, and continue to do so today, but at least the margins between them have closed.

Last year this match ended 5-2, this year only 2-1. That should bolster the squad to think that if they can just finish their dinner on time, they can prove to be more than capable foes to one of the league’s best teams. Heck, even the penalty for the first goal was decided by the finest of margins when the ball hit Tristan Blackmon’s arm in a split second. Had luck gone their way, this game could have been a completely different story.

Tiredness A Factor That Plagues ‘Caps Again

With the chances that the ‘Caps had in the first half, and the frustration felt at the misfortune that was the penalty for LAFC, many were hoping that the break would rejuvenate and invigorate the squad to go back out there and try and smash LAFC in front of their fans. Instead, what we got was a rather feeble and downcast second half performance.

The home side did very well in locking it down on their end, both in and out of possession. When LAFC had the ball, they tried to run circles around the Whitecaps with the sheer speed and power of their play. But when the ‘Caps had possession, the California club was clever in defending deeper so that the threat of the counter would be open in case the ‘Caps made a mistake building-up.

The combination of those two strategies meant that the Whitecaps lost steam very quickly in the second 45. Too soon we saw players struggling to meet the pace of the match, and too often did we see the attacks break down before they could even get too threatening. The toll that a match like this had after the fanfare game in the midweek became evident, and soon Whitecaps Head Coach Vanni Sartini called on his bench around the hour mark to bring some more energy in.

Pedro Vite, Stuart Armstrong, and Ali Ahmed were the ones that were hauled off for fresher legs. The former two were standouts against Portland, but struggled to produce the same level in the second half. Ahmed, surprisingly, was a shadow for the majority of the match, which is even more concerning given that he didn’t even feature in the midweek match. The subs did their best to try to pick the tempo up, but it never really felt like they could kickstart the comeback until much too late, when perhaps LAFC began to take their foot off of the gas in added time.

Tiredness is an issue that has been at the heart of the Whitecaps poor form at the tail end of the season. When in difficult schedules, the team struggles to perform at that higher level that fans know they can be at. Performances contrast, with those against Seattle and Minnesota at home the polar opposites of the one against Portland on Wednesday. Perhaps it’s a case of the style of play being too demanding to realistically expect when in a grueling run of fixtures, or it’s a case of the players being simply unable to keep up in those periods to perform at the level required. But regardless, it’s one of the biggest problems that Sartini has to address in the postseason, if not before then in these playoffs.

All Hands on Deck for November 3rd

If Wednesday’s game against Portland is to be the biggest result for the Whitecaps in MLS history, then Sunday’s home game against LAFC in Game 2 of the series has to become a close second if the Whitecaps are to keep this series alive.

In the 10 times that the Caps’ have faced LAFC in the past two years, they have yet to beat the California side at home. In fact, it was the last meeting of 2022 when the Whitecaps were last able to pull one over their newfound rival, thanks to that 89th minute Andres Cubas screamer. Simply put, that has to change on Sunday. There have been a distressing amount of times that the Whitecaps have struggled to get the dub in big games when in front of their own big crowds in the past few years. It almost feels like the ‘Caps do better when they feel like the underdogs. But if they want to make that next step to be one of the best sides in the Western Conference – if not in the whole of MLS – they need to be able to deliver when they are the favorites.

That means scoring on those big opportunities, making those big saves and diving tackles for the fans to celebrate, and more than anything, making the other team feel their dominance. It’s a tall ask to do that against the likes of LAFC, but when the occasion comes, it doesn’t matter who is in front of you; You. Must. Deliver. At least, that is what 20,000+ fans will be hoping for as they funnel into BC Place at the weekend. To push this game to a Game 3 would already show the growth that this side has been able to accomplish, even despite the poor end to the season. But the team needs to get themselves there first, and that starts on Sunday.

Best case scenario, the series gets pushed to a Game 3. Worst case scenario, it ends up just like last season. Either way, Sunday’s match should be about sending a message to the fans that this team can compete with the very best, and if they can’t beat them, they can at least make sure they don’t go back to California unscathed.